CNN has reported that a single trader posting bets on Polymarket, the world's largest decentralized prediction market platform, has correctly predicted military actions against Iran 93% of the time, each of them for more than $10,000. This incredible win rate has netted that one anonymous trader almost a million dollars so far.

Many of the winning bets came only hours before military strikes.

Let’s be clear, there’s luck… and then… there’s insider trading. The timing and the win rate of these bets are almost certainly the latter. Insider trading is illegal no matter where it occurs.

Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, another well-known prediction site, have come under scrutiny after the war in Iran has generated more than $1 billion in wagers concerning strikes, who might be killed, what will be hit, and when.

Trader "Magamyman" earned $553,000 alone from wagers related to Iran, placed just before the conflict. Notably, in one of several bets, they staked $32,000 in the early morning of February 28th, mere hours prior to the commencement of the strikes. Despite the Polymarket odds indicating only a 17% probability, they accurately forecast when the strikes would occur.

Magamyman is anonymous. They could be anyone. But they almost certainly aren’t an average American trader. Timing like that while also betting against the odds is a pretty strong indicator the person works for the government and had special knowledge of what was about to happen.

These prediction sites are largely unregulated and Polymarket specifically tries to avoid the law by incorporation outside of the US, but insider trading by an American citizen is illegal no matter where it’s happening.

Congress needs to investigate and expose this corruption. But they aren’t likely to lift a finger without public pressure to make them do it.

Click ‘START WRITING’ to sign and send a message to your members of Congress demanding an investigation into insider trading of online prediction markets now